Michael Lewis Liar's Poker
opens with the description of a famous wager made on a Wall Street trading floor in 1987. The CEO of the (soon-to-be bankrupt Salomon Brothers approached his star trader with an outlandish challenge: 'One hand, one million dollars, no tears'.
And the Saloman brothers bet? The star trader responded, 'Make it ten million!', correctly calculating that his boss would not risk such an amount.
The 'hand' or game he was referring to was 'liar's poker (aka 'cheat' or 'spoof'in the UK). It involved no playing cards but a combination of statistical calculation and bluffing (convincing your opponent of a falsehood).
Players hold random dollar bills with close attention to their own bill serial number. The objective of the game is to bluff the opponents into believing that your bid does not exceed the combined sum of all of the serial numbers...
Poker Face
The game requires great mathematical skill because the probability calculations are extremely complex. But even more essential is a 'poker face' and the ability to lie convincingly.And the Saloman brothers bet? The star trader responded, 'Make it ten million!', correctly calculating that his boss would not risk such an amount.
That such bluffing can lead dire consequences became clear in the Great Financial Crash of September 2008.
